Is there a Mayor’s race going on?
With just less than a year to go before the 2006 mayoral primary, New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin has $855,000 in the bank, according to campaign disclosure reports posted recently. T-P reports that political observers say the mayor's war chest, including $786,000 raised last year, is large enough to discourage potential challengers, but not large enough to assure Nagin of a cakewalk next year.
Incumbent mayors tend to enjoy distinct advantages when it comes to winning re-election. In fact, an incumbent New Orleans mayor has not lost a bid for re-election since 1946, when Robert Maestri was defeated by Chep Morrison. Maestri had already been in office 10 years at the time. Since the passage of the 1954 city charter, mayors have been limited to two consecutive terms in office.
Unseating an incumbent mayor is "extremely difficult unless the mayor is an obvious failure and there's a major decline in the city," said University of New Orleans professor of political science Susan Howell. (In the interest of full disclosure, I am quoting my wife here.) "The whole system is geared to re-elect the mayor, because everyone who has a contract at City Hall is beholden to the mayor," Howell said. "It's to their advantage that the mayor is re-elected."
Nagin's list of contributors shows that the old system is alive and well. The 498 people and firms that gave to his campaign in 2004 include dozens of companies that do business with City Hall, ranging from trash haulers to engineering, legal, insurance and construction firms.
Nagin has said he expects to have serious challengers, but so far, only two candidates have come forward: activist and former state Rep. Leo Watermeier and WWNO-FM announcer James Arey. Handicappers see both as longshots. Whether bigger names jump into the race remains to be seen, but they had better get it started.
What do you see happening?
Incumbent mayors tend to enjoy distinct advantages when it comes to winning re-election. In fact, an incumbent New Orleans mayor has not lost a bid for re-election since 1946, when Robert Maestri was defeated by Chep Morrison. Maestri had already been in office 10 years at the time. Since the passage of the 1954 city charter, mayors have been limited to two consecutive terms in office.
Unseating an incumbent mayor is "extremely difficult unless the mayor is an obvious failure and there's a major decline in the city," said University of New Orleans professor of political science Susan Howell. (In the interest of full disclosure, I am quoting my wife here.) "The whole system is geared to re-elect the mayor, because everyone who has a contract at City Hall is beholden to the mayor," Howell said. "It's to their advantage that the mayor is re-elected."
Nagin's list of contributors shows that the old system is alive and well. The 498 people and firms that gave to his campaign in 2004 include dozens of companies that do business with City Hall, ranging from trash haulers to engineering, legal, insurance and construction firms.
Nagin has said he expects to have serious challengers, but so far, only two candidates have come forward: activist and former state Rep. Leo Watermeier and WWNO-FM announcer James Arey. Handicappers see both as longshots. Whether bigger names jump into the race remains to be seen, but they had better get it started.
What do you see happening?
posted by John V at 9:00 AM
4 Comments:
Nagin will roll-- easily.
Saw Watermeier and Arey working the room at a recent function in MidCity... Have no idea about W's budget for a semi-serious campaign, but Arey has name recognition and the PJ's Coffee warchest behind him (his mother is Phyllis Jordan, P.J. herself).
From a TV viewers observations re: Katrina mess, I feel the Mayor sat on his ass until that mass of people without cars was trapped. He could have utilized school buses, city transportation, etc. to start evacuating at the same time many others left to safety. Now, everyone else is blamed but him. He shouldn't be mayor.
New Orleans needs to get some young blood in office. I am a student at UNO and am a politics major. Mayor Nagin didnt do what he was supposed to do in a time of crisis and he should be replaced. I am only 19 years old and I probally know more about government than he does, maybe I should run for mayor of our great city.
Post a Comment
<< Home