Sunday, May 21, 2006

It's Nagin ...

Some facts and figures from today's TP:

With all precincts reporting, Nagin had 52 percent of the vote, compared with Landrieu's 48 percent. It was the narrowest margin of victory for a sitting mayor in the city's modern history. The nearest parallel was the 1982 re-election of Dutch Morial, who won in a runoff that year with 53 percent of the vote.

With his victory, Nagin kept alive a 60-year win streak for incumbents and continued the era of African-American leadership in the mayor's office, which began when Landrieu's father, Moon Landrieu, left office in 1978.

By election day, more than half of the 462,000 pre-Katrina residents remained in exile, including as many as 200,000 registered voters.

Given the vast diaspora, Saturday's turnout could be considered brisk. Returns showed that 113,591 people cast a ballot for mayor, or about 38 percent of the city's 298,512 eligible voters. Nearly 25,000 people -- almost one-fourth of those who cast ballots -- mailed or faxed in an absentee ballot or voted in person at one of 10 balloting centers set up around the state for early voting. Turnout was 1 percent higher than in the primary.

Turnout among black voters in the primary was 31 percent, compared with 51 percent for white voters.

While black voter turnout in New Orleans generally lags white turnout, the disparity was more than 10 percent points larger than usual. In the 2002 mayoral primary, for instance, 50 percent of eligible white voters cast votes, compared with 45 percent of eligible black voters.

The results Saturday suggest that Nagin managed to build back a sizable portion of his once-enviable white base, an accomplishment that likely put him over the top.
Pollsters had said that, based on his strong showing among black voters in the primary, Nagin would need at least 20 percent and perhaps 25 percent of the white vote to win. Landrieu, conversely, would have had to build slightly upon the 24 percent of black votes he received in the primary.

Early analyses Saturday night indicate that Nagin met his goal of a 20 percent share of the white vote, while Landrieu failed to build upon his African-American support, and might have even lost some.


jbv's Competitive Edge 


Post a Comment

<< Home